Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will grow to 31 million units sold per year by the end of the decade, or one-third of the global automotive market, according to research firm Deloitte.
Many reports follow on the electric car and are similar. While the figures vary from one firm to another, all agree that its place will be in the majority in the middle of the 21st century. But in 2020, has the crisis due to Covid-19 shaken up the trend? A priori not according to the new study published by the firm Deloitte which estimates that the market share of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids should reach 32% in 2030 in the world. In detail, this would represent 31.1 million units sold per year, 81% of which are 100% electric. Thermal cars (gasoline, diesel, hybrids) have already reached their peak in 2017. They will increase again until 2025, before starting a rapid decline, according to the cabinet.
On the other hand, disparities exist between the different continents. The study sees only 27% of electric sales in the United States and 48% in China. In Europe, acceleration will only take place from 2025, going from 10% to 42% in 2030. Main lever: the policy of reducing CO2 emissions, which will be gradually reinforced. Deloitte does not detail the development in France, but specifies that it will undoubtedly be above average thanks to massive investments and purchasing aid.
For what follows, and unlike other studies (BNEF, etc.), Deloitte does not provide any outlook for the post-2030 period. Nevertheless, the various bans, in particular that of thermal in 2035 or even 2032 in the United Kingdom, will support the trend in Europe.
The firm also conducted a survey of potential buyers of electric vehicles to identify their main fears. Autonomy remains the most important brake (25 to 30%), ahead of the number of terminals, the price and the charging time.
In two years, this is the price factor that has changed the most according to respondents, thanks to the emergence of less elitist vehicles (Peugeot e-208, Skoda Citigo e iV, etc.). On the other hand, the lack of infrastructure is pointed out more, no doubt in the face of a sparse network of fast terminals. In France, autonomy is the main obstacle to buying. It is ahead of price, infrastructure and charging time.
Finally, the question of battery safety comes up in around 10% of responses. Internet and social networks were able to play. Indeed, some Tesla or Nio fire videos quickly went viral. But should we still remember that these incidents are extremely isolated, in the face of the thousands arriving on gasoline or diesel cars?